Are we two weeks away from a Ballard upset?

Chalk this up to the unattributable (Hat Tip: Indy Undercover), but supposedly Bart Peterson's internal polls have his lead over Republican Greg Ballard down to only three points and within the statistical margin of error.

Of course, if you pay attention to any mainstream media, these numbers seem illogical. How can Ballard have closed the gap?:

• Debates: The line of attack previous to the round of October debates was that Ballard was a Malcontent who had no ideas of his own and would crumble in the wake of Peterson's superior knowledge. Well, that never happened. Ballard has held his own with Peterson in the televised debates, and Peterson has been rattled by voter discontent during non-televised town halls. Ballard has been able to contrast his ideas with Peterson's, so the race never became the mayor vs. an empty suit. Further, Peterson has come off more smarmy than as a gifted policy debater. The cumulative effect is that more people who are unhappy with Peterson can see Ballard as a mayor, a big hurdle for any challenger.
• Peterson's TV Ads: Much of the media's coverage of this Mayoral Race has been devoted to money. Peterson has millions, Ballard has none with which to mount a paid media campaign. Thus Peterson has controlled the TV commercials, but he has not been without straw-man. When your candidate has no ads, your ads get compared to reality. Peterson's ads to date have tried to portray him as the Mayor of a thriving city, in control of crime, working to reduce property taxes, and creating jobs for the working man. Unfortunately for Peterson, the Public perception of Indianapolis' state of affairs is government can't control taxes, crime is out of control as well. While Indianapolis has been thriving, the public has not bought en masse the argument that Peterson deserves the credit. Peterson may have the money to be on TV 24/7, but one could argue he has been unable to use that to his advantage.
• Property Tax Anger: The Peterson fiscal strategy this year has been this: continue your enacting your policies, find ways to fund them, and the great things they buy will send you to a third term. In short, the public should have forgotten about property and income tax hikes by Election Day. This has been Peterson's main miscalculation. Peterson has defended city spending and his tax hikes, calling them necessary. But the public has not seen return for their tax dollars. Combine smaller paychecks in October from income tax hikes and another round of property tax bills, reminding families of the third bill to come next year, Peterson failed to manage the fiscal situation politically. Voters are still made they are paying more taxes, and they are seeing nothing in return. Bad mix for Peterson.
• Ballard's "New Car Smell": Essentially, what can you go negative on Greg Ballard? The only possible roads are experience and hypocrisy. Ballard is not essentially hurt by the lack of experience, because he emphasizes his non-politician status and and his military career. Peterson can focus on his experience, but his record is then open for debate. One could argue Ballard has not put forward intellectually whole statements and plans, but again, his foil is Peterson, for which the same could be argued. Ballard is not in the Teflon Category, but he is in the New Car Category. As long as he continues to show he is no "lemon," more people will continue to buy.

With the exception of the October Debates, these dynamics have been in place since the summer, when Peterson's lead in the polls was nearly 40 points. The only dynamic that could change is Peterson running an effective TV ad, which he has yet to do given polling trends. It things remain static, Ballard should surprise the mainstream media and pull off a close defeat of Bart (and Fred) Peterson.

Comments

[arnie]

Get real.

[anonymous]

"real" is that this is not a normal year. it is hard to say who will actually show up at the polls and how very angry voters will vote. even earlier polls with big leads for peterson (d) had large undecideds. this is all plausible. stranger thing have happened. if it's not close, why is peterson in the field polling? getting slightly more realistic, peterson may win but by a surprisingly small margin. the real shockers will be in CCC races. people who couldn't bring themselves to vote for a mayoral candidate they don't know most likely don't know anything about their CCC members. they may just throw the bums out. the better ones may be the most vulnerable. gray ain't going anywhere and that could be a blessing for the opposition in the long run.

[James Carvel]

The political science professor Bloomquist at IUPUI made an interesting statement with regard to Peterson's agreement to participate in these debates with Ballard.
Bloomquist is absolutely right when states that the incumbant frontrunner seldom IF EVER agrees to debate a challenger that he has substantial lead over. Bloomquist seemed puzzled that Peterson had agreed to all of the debates.
My assumption is that the Peterson internal polling data suggested that he MUST agree to debate Ballard or lose ground by refusing.
Peterson simply does not have the lead that some politicos seemed to believe he had.
If your counting the cash Peterson raised as a valid reason for his reelection then one only need to look at the monied others whose dry bones litter the political landscape of elections past that they thought their money could buy.
Final poll is November 6. Don't bet the farm against Ballard. Peterson certainly hasn't and it's already cost him over $2 million.