Polis Politics

Quick thoughts on the 7th

Two quick thoughts before tonight's candlelight vigil for Congresswoman Julia Carson:

First, if you have not seen it already, Ruth Holladay has a great post on the Star's reporting of Carson's illness. Holladay says the Star has neglected to ask basic questions or pry into the situation over the past year, giving the Carson camp a free pass on whether or not they withheld any information on the situation. Another example occurred yet again this morning. The Star ran a story on how Carson's illness has drawn attention to lung cancer. The article references that the paper did not know if Carson had ever smoked. However, on Wednesday, WTHR ran a report on a similar subject, and referenced that Carson was indeed a former smoker. Carson may be a political legend, but the Star should not be afraid to ask questions and demand answers.

It also appears that Democrats have begun their attacks on potential GOP candidates to succeed Carson. In addition to the Carson story, the Star also ran a letter to the editor today from one Chris Worden, which criticized State Representative Jon Elrod for sending out a constituent mailing. Worden most likely did not disclose to the Star that he was a Deputy Attorney General under and ran the campaigns of former Attorneys General Pamela Carter and Jeff Modisett, both Democrats. Worden's office is in Elrod's district, but given the recent incident involving the GOP YouTube Debate, the Star should check into the background of political letter writers.

Teachers' Union needs PR Consultant

The Circle City Pundit, The Hoosierpundit, and (by extension) Hoosier Access have all pointed out the Star Article which gave us a chuckle Monday night: the Indiana State Teachers Association, under the guise of supporting property tax relief, announced its opposition to the removal of property taxes from their funding.

The Union says it needs a "stable funding source" and sales and income taxes are unstable, declining in economic downturns. Translation: the Union will have less control over school spending, and, by extension, employee salaries and benefits.

The Star article points out that the State of Indiana already provides 85% of local school general funding. The rest of school budgets are made up through local property taxes. The way it works is local school boards approve their budgets, and the DLGF tells the County Treasurer how much to charge in property taxes to fully fund the budget. The budget always gets fully funded. If the State takes over all funding, School Boards might have to scale back their budgets if the Legislature is not as generous as the local boards. That is not in the Union's financial interest.

The situation reminds us of the scene in Casino where Robert DeNiro chews out the pastry chef at the Tangiers for his blueberry muffins. DeNiro's muffin had almost no berries, while Kevin Pollack's had many berries to almost no muffin. DeNiro ordered the chef that from now on the muffins should have an equal amount of blueberries. The chef retorted, "Do you know how long that will take?"

Indiana Democrats get their "Fix"

Washington Post online columnist Chris Cillizza is a writer with a schtick: he loves lists. He is most famous for putting out Top 5 or Top 10 rankings of Senate, House, and Gubernatorial races. If you read his body of work, you also notice in between lists he is continuously fascinated by Democrat success and hope between the coasts.

Thus, it was no surprise to us when Cillizza devoted a recent column to this past weekend's Indianapolis Star/WTHR  poll that put Governor Mitch Daniels behind Democrat opponents and Indiana in the blue column for President in 2008 if the Democrats choose Evan Bayh as their VP candidate. It was no surprise as well that Indiana Democrats, downtrodden after the 2007 losses in Marion County and Julia Carson's decline, would be doing jumping jacks over a national columnist  noticing the State Democrat Party is not dead.

But keep in mind that Cillizza is no expert at local affairs (which he admits). He is an observer who reads hundreds of websites a day and gathers information at a distance. He found it intriguing that a state that goes heavily Republican for past GOP Presidential candidates would be in this state at this stage, saying Indiana may be turning purple. What Cillizza neglects is that before Daniels, Indiana had a Democrat Governor for 16 years, and that Democrats lost heavily in Indianapolis this year. Cillizza also may not have noticed that the Presidential numbers in the poll were generic party ballot tests. Hillary Clinton by name will certainly change those numbers.

Again, the Star poll shows both parties have a lot of work to do. This poll making "The Fix" really isn't news at all.

Changing of the Guard

With Congresswoman Julia Carson's announcement that she will not be running again, The Indianapolis Star has a gallery of photos spanning Carson's political career. This one in particular, featuring Bill Crawford from 1977, reminds us that we are entering a new chapter in local politics:

Thoughts on Star Gubernatorial Poll

On Sunday, the Indianapolis Star released the latest portion of its poll, showing Governor Mitch Daniels neck and neck with potential Democrat challengers, former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson and Democrat activist Jim Schellinger.

The numbers no doubt caused liberal bloggers and Daniels-haters to do jumping jacks, but the Democrats are in a tougher situation than they might think.

• It is clear that the voters are in an anti-incumbent mood, and that is based on the fact they know that government waste is causing the tax increases. They aren't receiving enough to justify the exorbitant tax rates, and they see no one doing anything about it, State or Local.
• It remains to be seen whether it is vote all bums our or vote the big spenders out. Conservatives have yet to be proven wrong that despite recent Democrat gains both here in Central Indiana and nationally, the public turned against big spending incumbents, not the GOP. Daniels has a year to show his record is not a contributor to the tax crisis, and his resume is such that it could work.
• Daniels is also intent on delivering tax relief and tax reform. House Speaker Pat Bauer and the Democrats can play ball or be obstructionists. Daniels getting tax relief through can secure his reelection. However, if the Democrats block reform for political gain, it very well may backfire. It is more to Bauer's interests to play ball and run for Governor himself in four years than risk a House Majority to help Thompson or Schellinger.
• Speaking of Thompson and Schellinger, their numbers are nothing to crow about either. While Daniels numbers are certainly well within the danger zone, they aren't above 50%, a key threshold for pulling off an upset. The fact that the Democrat candidates share the same level of support versus Daniels, yet Daniels gains three points versus Thompson over Schellinger means both Dems are not well known. It also means, however, that Thompson is known well enough to drive 3% of undecided back to Daniels. While there is plenty of time before the May primary, that stat may play a role in who may get the Primary nod. Thompson has the current lead, but Schellinger is trying to play outsider, despite his ties as a established Democrat financier.

All in all, just more evidence that both parties have much to do before November 2008.

Star Poll on Bayh worthless dose of Fantasy

The Indianapolis Star released a new poll today measuring Hoosier opinions on National Issues.

Much like the rest of the nation, Hoosiers are anxious about the economy, Iraq, and immigration. And as we saw a few weeks ago, they still do not like incumbents.

But the headline in the Star's eyes: Indiana can go Democrat in the 2008 Presidential race if the Dems make Evan Bayh its VP candidate.

Let's put this in perspective. Media across the country have been speculating at possible Democrat vice presidential candidates since Election Day. If Bayh is to remain in the mix, the Star will have to keep it there.

Bayh is not a smart pick for the Dems to be VP. Red meat Democrats are convinced that the party will only win on a return to liberal issues and candidates. Bayh is well known as a centrist within his party. The poll also uses the worthless generic ballot test (Dem Candidate vs. GOP candidate), which tends Democrat anyways. Does Bayh actually move voters in Hillary's column or in Barack Obama's? We don't know; the poll never asked.

Most importantly, picking Bayh does not move the Electoral College in the Democrats favor. in 2004, Bush won 286-251. If Bayh indeed turned Indiana blue, the college is still only 275 to 262. It would make more sense for Democrats to select candidates like Sen. Ben Nelson of Florida or Gov. Ted Strickland of Ohio that would turn the Electoral College outright in the Democrats favor.

Today's poll is nothing more than an attempt to keep Bayh's name afloat in the VP sweepstakes, a vainglorious fantasy of the Star management.

Switched at Birth: Barbara Malone Edition

We will be preparing for our Holiday Feast (both Turkey and Football). We'll be back with you soon, but in the meantime, a Switched at Birth with some new council members:

City-County Councilor-Elect Barbara Malone and Democrat political strategist Donna Brazile:

Catching up with Sweet Pea

City-County Council President Monroe Gray has tried to stay out of the spotlight since he and his fellow Democrats lost control of the Council for 2008-2011. That doesn't mean, though, that he has been quiet behind the scenes.

• Council Democrats are supposedly deadlocked 7-6 over whether Gray should remain in charge of the Caucus (now as Minority Leader instead of President). From all reports, the battle lines have been drawn racially. Supposedly the split is Evans, Pryor, Oliver, Bateman, Carson, and Brown behind Gray with Mansfield, Nytes, Moriarty Adams, and the Maherns behind Joanne Sanders. Many believe Gray was a contributing factor to the Dems' 2007 losses, and watchers behind the scenes are saying if Gray prevails as Minority leader, it will serve as evidence the Dems "just don't get it."
• Gray is also set to retire soon as IFD's Liaison to the Council, a job which controversially pays him nearly $80,000 per year. The Job is a cushy one, so why is he retiring? The retirement was announced before Greg Ballard upset Bart Peterson and before the Star began investigating his work with IFD. The answer may lie with one of Gray's other discretions: his concrete company contracts. Gray has already lost one court case in those dealings. Insiders say Gray's retirement is directly related to that issue, so as to reduce the possible pool of wage garnishment (Gray will still make in the teens as a Councilor). There is also scuttlebutt that Gray is making moves to shield other assets as well.

Is more bad news for Gray coming down the pike?

Ambitious Dems could concede a lot of Turf in 7th

Advance Indiana reports that State Representative David Orentlicher (D-86) will seek nomination for the 7th Congressional District in 2008 if Congresswoman Julia Carson does not.

While some potential candidates are not in office (Bart Peterson) and others hold strong Democrat seats (State Rep. Bill Crawford, Center Township Trustee Carl Drummer, District 15 Councilor Andre Carson), Dems in key seats may leave their seats open to join the crowded primary, namely Orentlicher and Marion County Treasurer Mike Rodman. Others may follow suit.

And Republicans will fight for both seats if open. After Greg Ballard's mayoral win, I am sure there will be several names arise for the Treasurer seat even if Rodman doesn't join the fray in the 7th. The 86th House seat held by Orentlicher is competitive with him out of the race. Demographics put that district in play, and one name already mentioned is Kurt Webber, who earned 43% of the vote in the heavily Democrat 8th Council District against Monroe Gray.

Democrats are already hurting. A bloody Congressional primary with candidates who have vacated seats that are not easy to maintain control of is not the news they needed.

Frank Anderson plays Political Football

Marion County Democrats are great at making ironic press statements, and Sheriff Frank Anderson is but the latest. Anderson is vigorously on the offensive against Mayor-Elect Greg Ballard, as Ballard's main campaign plank was returning control of IMPD from the Sheriff to a Mayor-appointed Police Chief. Anderson's main sound bite on the switch is that IMPD should not be a "political football" kicked around when various sides win. Now, Anderson wants a referendum on the matter.

To the observer, it is very obvious it is Anderson who is playing political football

• When Bart Peterson proposed police consolidation, he proposed IMPD be under a Mayor-appointed Chief. Anderson balked, Peterson caved in, and Anderson is now the man in control of IMPD.
• Anderson is claiming Ballard wants to undo the merger. However, changing the titular head does not have to undo the merger.
• Anderson may not run for re-election,but he does not want to be muted either.

Anderson's call for a referendum is wholly political for two reasons:

1. Anderson does not want to cede power and will play the populism card to keep it.
2. With a disastrous 2007 in terms of Democratic turnout, a referendum could give Democrats a test case by running Anderson against Ballard directly for IMPD control. A win in favor of the Sheriff could quell any feeling of mandate by Ballard and give the Dems momentum leading to future elections.

That said, Anderson's strategy only works if he can win public support for such a referendum. That seems unlikely.